Beyond the North-South divide: transnational coalitions in EU reforms

The literature on fifteen years of European crises leaves the reader with a puzzle. Prominent accounts of the longest crisis - that of the euro area (EA) - assert that the EA is deeply divided between North and South, with Central Eastern European (CEE) member states being ignored. This makes it hard to explain how the union has managed to reform since 2008 and especially during the Covid-19 pandemic. Scholars have started to talk of transnational coalitions, but they equate coalition-formation with bringing together the like-minded, typically over solidarity versus sovereignty and more or less integration. However, coalitions of the like-minded are typically too small to sustain reforms and compromise has to be sought with others who have different preferences. To establish empirically how stable or fluid transnational coalitions are, we exploit the EMU|Choices database (Wasserfallen, Leuffen, Kudrna, and Degner 2019) [Analysing European Union decision-making during the Eurozone crisis with new data. European Union Politics, 20 (1), 3-23] on EA reforms and our own original data on Covid-19 reforms. Our findings show a stable pattern but no geopolitical divide - coalitions have varying CEE members. These findings can provide a basis for developing a more plausible conceptualisation of transnational coalitions.