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Land use assessment under dynamic evolution: Multi-objective optimization and multi-scenario simulation analysis.

Dan Yang1, Pengyan Zhang2, Jinbing Zhang2

  • 1School of Tourism, Hebei University of Economics and Business, No. 47 Xuefu Road, Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, 050061, China; Green Development Research Center of Great Wall Cultural Economic Belt, Hebei University of Economics and Business, No. 47 Xuefu Road, Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, 050061, China.

Journal of Environmental Management
|November 29, 2024
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Efficient land use is crucial for carbon neutrality and development. This study used remote sensing and modeling to predict land use changes, finding that optimizing spatial configuration can balance ecological protection and economic growth.

Keywords:
CMIP 6GMOP-PLUSLand useMulti-objective scenariosYellow river basin

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Geospatial Analysis
  • Sustainable Development

Background:

  • Balancing ecological protection and economic development in river basins is essential for achieving carbon neutrality and high-quality development.
  • Land resource utilization is a critical factor in addressing these challenges.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To simulate and predict land use changes over the next 30 years using integrated modeling approaches.
  • To provide a basis for future land management policies by defining target scenarios.
  • To analyze the trade-offs between different ecosystem services under various land use scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Combination of remote sensing data and land use change modeling.
  • Integration of the Grey multi-objective optimization-Patch-level land use simulation (GMOP-PLUS) model with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP 6) development pathways.
  • Definition of 12 target scenarios for simulation and prediction.

Main Results:

  • From 1980-2020, grassland dominated (41%), with significant increases in built-up land and decreases in unused land and cropland.
  • Land use structure complexity increased post-2000, particularly in central and western regions.
  • Under the SSP126 scenario, woodland expansion is projected, while grassland may shrink, with risks of conversion to unused land. The SSP585 scenario shows grassland transforming into woodland or unused land under specific targets.

Conclusions:

  • The SSP126 scenario appears more aligned with sustainable development goals for the basin.
  • Optimizing land spatial configuration is vital for mitigating trade-offs between ecosystem services and ensuring ecosystem stability.
  • The developed modeling methodology is adaptable for application in diverse geographical regions.