Climatic determinants of monkeypox transmission: A multi-national analysis using generalized count mixed models

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Environmental Health
• Virology

Background:

• Monkeypox (mpox) is a rare viral disease causing severe illness, with outbreaks concentrated in Africa.
• Understanding mpox transmission dynamics is crucial for effective public health interventions.
• Climate factors are increasingly recognized as potential drivers of infectious disease outbreaks.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the association between climatic variables and daily mpox (monkeypox) case counts.
• To identify the most effective statistical model for predicting mpox transmission based on climate data.
• To quantify the impact of specific climate factors on mpox spread.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of confirmed mpox cases from May 2022 to February 2023 in 33 countries.
• Comparison of four statistical models: Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial.
• Assessment of correlations between daily cases and climate factors including heat index, relative humidity, and wind speed.

Main Results:

• A significant correlation was observed between climate factors and daily mpox cases in most studied countries.
• Each 1°C increase in heat index correlated with a 7.7% rise in daily mpox cases (IRR=1.077, p<0.05).
• Increased relative humidity (-2.4%) and wind speed (-7.3%) were associated with decreased daily mpox cases.

Conclusions:

• The heat index positively impacts mpox transmission, while relative humidity and wind speed act as protective factors.
• Climate variables are significant predictors of daily mpox case numbers.
• Public health strategies should incorporate climate data for targeted mpox prevention and control efforts.