Urban land use optimization prediction considering carbon neutral development goals: a case study of Taihu Bay Core...

Given the increasing commitment of numerous nations to achieving future carbon neutrality, urban development planning that integrating carbon storage considerations plays a crucial role in enhancing urban carbon efficiency and promoting regional sustainable development. Previous studies have indicated that optimizing land use structure and quality is essential for regional carbon storage management. Taking the core area of Taihu Bay as study area, this study innovatively combined high-precision urban 3D data to account for the whole urban carbon pools of buildings, vegetation, soils, water. Then, multi-objective linear programming model and PLUS (Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model were applied at patch scale to assess and compare carbon storage in various scenarios, considering both carbon storage maximization and urban development requirements.

The results were presented as follows. (1) Urban woodland carbon pool accounts for only a fraction of total carbon pool, and the role of soil and building carbon pools cannot be ignored. (2) Compared with the current situation, the carbon-growth optimized scenario will lead to the increase of total carbon storage by 38,568.31 tons. (3) Carbon-growth optimized scenario has reduced carbon storage in Woodland, Cropland, Village, Water compared to the Natural growth scenario, but has increased carbon storage in Garden plots, Street, Urban district, Town and other areas.

Therefore, we find that for fast-growing cities, rationally planning built-up areas and woodland areas can achieve the twin goals of economic development and maximizing regional carbon storage. Furthermore, the implementation of new energy policies and projects such as green roofs can help to achieve regional carbon neutrality. The study provides new insights into the accounting of carbon pools within cities and the simulation of fine-grained land use planning based on the dual objectives of carbon stock maximization and urban development.