A Model to Predict the Risk of Adverse Ocular Outcomes in Pregnant Women

Aims/Background Pregnancy can affect various bodily functions, including metabolism, cardiovascular function, and eyesight. Pathological ocular changes observed during pregnancy are linked to the development of pregnancy-specific conditions, such as preeclampsia/eclampsia and gestational diabetes. This study aims to analyze clinical data disease history and maternal characteristics collected during pregnancy, to determine ocular parameters and develop a risk prediction model for adverse ocular outcomes. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 760 pregnant women (1520 eyes) from September 2020 to September 2022 at The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University. We identified maternal variables that could influence adverse ocular outcomes, including maternal age, pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH), gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), eclampsia, pre-eclampsia, uterine disease, fetal abnormalities, in vitro fertilization with embryo transfer, hypoproteinemia, and major comorbidities during pregnancy. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the effects of these independent predictors on adverse ocular outcomes. Additionally, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to determine the cut-off probability with for optimal sensitivity and specificity. Results Eclampsia, pre-eclampsia, GDM, a history of chronic hypertension, and hypoproteinemia were identified as independent predictors of adverse ocular outcomes during pregnancy (p < 0.05). Maternal age, PIH, intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), obesity, and pregnancy with immunoglobulin A nephropathy were predictors of moderate and severe retinal arteriole sclerosis during pregnancy (p < 0.05). Additionally, hemolysis, elevated liver enzymes, and low platelets (HELLP) syndrome were predictors of retinal hemorrhage and exudate during pregnancy (p < 0.05). The area under the ROC curve for adverse ocular outcomes were 0.75 and 0.74, respectively. Conclusion Our predictive model effectively forecasts adverse ocular outcomes during pregnancy, incorporating risk factors such as maternal age, eclampsia and pre-eclampsia, GDM, obesity, a history of chronic hypertension, hypoproteinemia, IUGR, pregnancy with immunoglobulin A nephropathy, and HELLP syndrome.