Mapping the potential for global offshore finfish mariculture

Area of Science:

• Marine biology
• Aquaculture
• Climate change impact assessment

Background:

• Global seafood security relies on sustainable aquaculture.
• Offshore mariculture offers expansion potential but faces environmental challenges.

Purpose of the Study:

• To map global offshore mariculture potential for 23 finfish species.
• To assess climate change impacts on suitable mariculture areas.

Main Methods:

• Ensemble modeling incorporating environmental heterogeneity.
• Analysis of temperature-dependent hypoxia and thermal safety margins.
• Projection of suitable areas under future climate scenarios.

Main Results:

• Currently, 9.16 ± 1.22 million km² is suitable for offshore finfish mariculture.
• By 2050, suitable areas may decrease to 86.7%-91.7% of current levels.
• Temperate and polar regions show increased importance, while tropical areas decline.

Conclusions:

• Offshore finfish mariculture potential shifts geographically due to climate change.
• Cold-water species may benefit from warming trends.
• Despite challenges, offshore mariculture remains a significant future food source.