Genetic Discovery and Risk Prediction for Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals Without High-Risk HLA-DR3/DR4 Haplotypes

More than 10% of patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) do not have high-risk HLA-DR3 or -DR4 haplotypes with distinct clinical features, such as later onset and reduced insulin dependence. We aimed to identify genetic drivers of T1D in the absence of DR3/DR4 and improve prediction of T1D risk in these individuals.

We performed T1D association and fine-mapping analyses in 12,316 non-DR3/DR4 samples. Next, we performed heterogeneity tests to examine differences in T1D risk variants in individuals without versus those with DR3/DR4 haplotypes. We further assessed genome-wide differences in gene regulatory element and biological pathway enrichments between the non-DR3/DR4 and DR3/DR4 cohorts. Finally, we developed a genetic risk score (GRS) to predict T1D in individuals without DR3/DR4 and compared with an existing T1D GRS.

A total of 18 T1D risk variants in non-DR3/DR4 samples were identified. Risk variants at the MHC and multiple other loci genome wide had heterogeneity in effects on T1D dependent on DR3/DR4 status, and non-DR3/DR4 T1D had evidence for a greater polygenic burden. T1D-associated variants in non-DR3/DR4 were more enriched for regulatory elements and pathways involved in antigen presentation, innate immunity, and β-cells and depleted in T cells compared with DR3/DR4. A non-DR3/DR4 GRS outperformed an existing risk score GRS2 in discriminating non-DR3/DR4 T1D from no diabetes (area under the curve 0.867; P = 7.48 × 10-32) and type 2 diabetes (0.907; P = 4.94 × 10-44).

In total, we identified heterogeneity in T1D genetic risk dependent on high-risk HLA-DR3/DR4 haplotype, which uncovers disease mechanisms and enables more accurate prediction of T1D across the HLA background.