Balancing growth and preservation: Unravelling Africa's carbon-economic nexus through the environmental kuznets curve

Africa is vulnerable to the challenges of global climate change, which poses a significant obstacle to achieving economic development while protecting the environment. Despite numerous Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) studies, evidence remains inconclusive, especially in African countries. This study delves into the carbon-economic nexus within the EKC framework across 46 African countries from 1990 to 2020. Utilizing advanced econometric techniques such as Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling based on the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, Common Correlated Effects Pooled Mean Group (CCE-PMG), appropriate U test, and Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality test, the research uncovers significant insights into how GDP, energy consumption, and urbanization impact CO₂ emissions across different income groups. The findings strongly support the EKC hypothesis for lower-middle-income (LMI) and upper-middle- and high-income (UM&HI) countries, where economic growth initially worsens environmental degradation but eventually leads to improvements as incomes rise. However, in low-income (LI) countries, the study reveals a U-shaped relationship, suggesting that early economic growth may reduce emissions, but continued development could lead to increased environmental stress. Energy consumption is identified as a persistent driver of CO₂ emissions across all income groups, while urbanization shows mixed impacts, with negative environmental consequences in LI countries and potential environmental benefits in LMI and UM&HI countries. These findings carry important policy implications for African countries as they seek to balance economic growth with environmental preservation. The research calls for targeted policies that promote green technologies, enhance energy efficiency, and implement sustainable urban planning to ensure that Africa's development trajectory is environmentally sustainable.