Systematic Risks of the Global Lithium Supply Chain Network: From Static Topological Structures to Cascading Failure...

Area of Science:

• Materials Science
• Economics
• Network Science

Background:

• Lithium is critical for e-mobility and climate goals, but its supply chain faces increasing risks.
• Existing research often overlooks dynamic, cascading risks and interdependencies across life cycle stages and economies.
• Supply chain risks propagate through complex, multilayer networks, both geographically and temporally.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the intricate interconnections, interdependencies, and systematic risks within the global lithium supply chain.
• To analyze both static and dynamic network properties to understand the supply chain's vulnerability.
• To identify key countries and potential impacts of geopolitical events, like trade decoupling, on the lithium supply chain.

Main Methods:

• Integration of trade-linked material flow analysis with complex network analysis.
• Application of both static and dynamic network measures to assess supply chain robustness and fragility.
• Modeling hypothetical scenarios, such as USA-China trade decoupling, to quantify risk amplification.

Main Results:

• The global lithium supply chain exhibits a "robust-yet-fragile" characteristic, resilient to random shocks but vulnerable to targeted disruptions.
• Specific countries, including Portugal, Brazil, Singapore, Canada, Finland, Norway, South Africa, Israel, Hungary, and UAE, are identified as highly susceptible to disruptions.
• A hypothetical USA-China trade decoupling could escalate network-wide failures by approximately 5%.

Conclusions:

• The findings highlight the need for global collaboration to enhance lithium supply chain security and resilience.
• Balancing supply chain efficiency with security is crucial to avoid a "zero-sum game" scenario.
• Addressing systemic risks requires collective efforts to ensure a stable supply of lithium for the e-mobility transition.