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Summary

New energy vehicle and gasoline vehicle manufacturers face risks of market disruption under dual credit policies. Delayed production decisions can stabilize the automotive industry and support the transition to new energy vehicles.

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Area of Science:

  • Automotive Engineering
  • Complex Systems Theory
  • Environmental Policy

Background:

  • The automotive industry faces challenges transitioning to new energy vehicles (NEVs) amidst existing gasoline vehicle (GV) production.
  • The dual credit (DC) policy aims to incentivize NEV adoption and emission reductions.
  • Understanding long-term manufacturer strategies under policy is crucial for market stability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a nonlinear dynamic system model for analyzing NEV and GV production strategies under the DC policy.
  • To investigate the impact of production delays on the stability and dynamics of the automotive market.
  • To identify conditions for market stability and support the industry's transformation.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized complex system theory and nonlinear dynamic system analysis.
  • Modeled a long-term game process between NEV and GV manufacturers.
  • Analyzed system behaviors including stable regions, bifurcation, chaotic attractors, and the Largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), incorporating production delays.

Main Results:

  • Increased production and carbon emission adjustment parameters can lead to system disorder and market disruption.
  • In stable regions, GV emission adjustments do not impact NEV or GV production; NEVs show greater production flexibility.
  • Delayed production decisions can positively influence market stability.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides theoretical insights into the dynamics of automotive production under the DC policy.
  • Delayed production decisions are recommended for stabilizing the market during the NEV transition.
  • Findings support policymakers and manufacturers in navigating the shift towards sustainable automotive industries.