Phenological divergence between plants and animals under climate change.

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Phenology

Background:

• Climate change is altering seasonal biological events (phenology) globally.
• Unequal phenological shifts across trophic levels can disrupt ecosystem functioning.
• Understanding plant-animal phenological synchrony is crucial for predicting ecological responses.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze global terrestrial phenological data from 1981-2020.
• To quantify the degree of phenological asynchronization between plants and animals.
• To investigate the drivers of phenological shifts and their temporal dependencies.

Main Methods:

• Compiled and analyzed a large global dataset of terrestrial phenological observations.
• Utilized nearly half a million time series for both plants and animals.
• Assessed temporal variations and cross-phenophase linkages in response to climate warming.

Main Results:

• Observed increasing phenological asynchronization between plants and animals from 1981 to 2020.
• Found a stronger advancement of late-season plant phenophases compared to animals.
• Demonstrated that plant phenological timing is strongly dependent on preceding phenophases, amplifying warming effects.

Conclusions:

• Future warming is likely to exacerbate plant-animal phenological asynchronization.
• Weakened cross-phenophase linkages in animals limit their adaptive response to warming.
• Increased asynchronization poses risks to trophic interactions and overall ecosystem stability.