Precision risk assessment in wheat allergy: Leveraging advanced quantitative models for safer food consumption

Food allergy is a significant public health concern and food safety issue. Deriving from classical toxicology principle, the food allergen risk assessment has been considered a science-based strategy to identify, quantify, and manage the food allergy risks as such risk represent a significant food safety. Moreover, the implication of the precautionary allergen labeling in most jurisdictions is voluntary, resulting potential risk to allergic consumers. In this study, a quantitative risk assessment technique was employed to evaluate the risk of wheat allergy in prepackaged foods. The assessment utilized probabilistic models, including the lognormal, Weibull, Gamma distributions, and Bayesian model averaging. The predicted allergic reactions were determined to be 682, 854, 677, and 721 incidents per 10,000 eating occasions within wheat allergic population, respectively. The findings of this study revealed that the consumption of prepackaged foods containing gluten without wheat/gluten summary (i.e., ingredient) labeling would potentially pose the risk of allergic reactions to wheat allergic individuals. The utilization of quantitative risk assessment methodology at different points of the food system facilitates alleviating unnecessary concerns to stakeholders while maintaining a reasonable knowledge of allergy risk and providing valuable guidance in formulating effective management strategies to mitigate the risk of food allergies, thereby contributing to the overall safety of the sustainable food system.