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Global epidemiological profile in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a prediction study
Yuna Zhang1,2, Shanshan Gu1, Hongxia Deng3
1Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, The Affiliated Lihuili Hospital, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315040, Zhejiang, China.
Objectives:
This study delineates the global nasopharyngeal carcinoma's (NPC) incidence and mortality across 185 countries in 2020 and projects the disease's burden by 2040.
Design:
A prediction study.
Setting:
Countries within the 20 world regions.
Participants:
Global NPC population.
Primary And Secondary Outcome Measures:
The estimated counts of NPC cases and deaths were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardised death rates (ASDR) were computed. Projections for NPC by 2040 were derived from global population forecasts.
Results:
In the year 2020, East Asia emerged as the epicentre of both NPC incidences and mortalities, encompassing 49.39% (65 866 of the total 133 354 cases) and 45.56% (36 453 of the total 80 008 deaths), respectively, with China's contribution being the most substantial (46.82% of cases and 43.50% of deaths). The disparity between genders was notable, as the ASIR and ASDR for males were approximately triple those observed in females. The incidence exhibited regional diversity, with South-Eastern Asia and East Asia recording the highest ASIR for males and females (7.7 and 2.5, and 3.9 and 1.5 per 100 000 person-years, respectively). Similarly, South-Eastern Asia also reported the highest ASDR for both genders (5.4 and 1.5 per 100 000 person-years, respectively). Projections for 2040 anticipate a rise in annual cases and deaths to 179 476 (indicating a 34.58% increase from 2020) and 113 851 (reflecting a 42.29% increase), respectively. Further analysis revealed a correlation between the Human Development Index and disease burden.
Conclusions:
NPC, primarily impacting East Asia and predominantly affecting men, is poised for a significant increase in incidence and mortality by 2040, especially in Asia.
