Achieving Hepatitis C Micro-Elimination in Chinese Injecting Drug Users: A Dynamic Network Modeling Study

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Infectious Disease Epidemiology
• Health Economics

Background:

• The World Health Organization (WHO) has set global targets for hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication.
• People who inject drugs (PWID) are a key population for HCV transmission and elimination efforts in China.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the necessary screening and antiviral treatment rates for HCV elimination among PWID in China.
• To identify the most cost-effective strategy for achieving WHO HCV targets in this population.

Main Methods:

• Dynamic social network models were used to simulate HCV transmission and disease progression.
• A cost-effectiveness analysis from a healthcare perspective was incorporated.

Main Results:

• Achieving WHO mortality goals requires at least 10% screening and treatment; incidence goals require 25%.
• The optimal strategy involves 25% screening and 95% treatment, significantly reducing costs (-$85,873.38) and increasing quality-adjusted life years (+24.66).
• This dominant strategy shows a cost-effectiveness ratio of -$3482.29 per QALY.

Conclusions:

• Hepatitis C virus elimination is achievable among people who inject drugs in China.
• The proposed screening and treatment strategy is both feasible and cost-saving.