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Updated: Jun 5, 2025

Exploring the Effects of Atmospheric Forcings on Evaporation: Experimental Integration of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Shallow Subsurface

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Thermodynamically inconsistent extreme precipitation sensitivities across continents driven by cloud-radiative

Sarosh Alam Ghausi^1,2,3, Erwin Zehe⁴, Subimal Ghosh^5,6

¹Biospheric Theory and Modelling Group, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany. sghausi@bgc-jena.mpg.de.

Nature Communications

|December 11, 2024

Summary

Global warming intensifies extreme rainfall, but cloud effects obscure this trend. New analysis reveals positive extreme precipitation-temperature sensitivities across continents, aligning with climate projections.

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Area of Science:

Climate Science
Atmospheric Physics
Hydrology

Background:

Global warming is projected to increase the intensity of extreme precipitation events.
Observation-based estimates of extreme precipitation-temperature (EP-T) sensitivities exhibit significant spatial and temporal variability.
Negative EP-T sensitivities are often observed in warmer regions, contradicting theoretical expectations.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the reasons behind the observed variability in EP-T sensitivities.
To identify and remove confounding factors affecting EP-T sensitivity estimates.
To provide a more accurate assessment of how extreme precipitation intensifies with temperature.

Main Methods:

Utilized a thermodynamically constrained surface-energy balance model.
Quantified and removed confounding cloud radiative effects from observational data.
Analyzed EP-T sensitivities across different latitudinal bands (tropics, mid-latitudes).

Main Results:

Cloud radiative effects were identified as a significant confounder, introducing artificial covariation between rainfall and temperature.
After removing cloud effects, positive EP-T sensitivities were found across continental regions.
Median EP-T sensitivities shifted from negative to positive values, particularly in the tropics (from -4.9%/°C to 6.1%/°C).
Regional variability in estimated sensitivities decreased substantially (over 40% in tropics, 30% in mid-latitudes).

Conclusions:

The projected intensification of extreme rainfall with increasing global temperatures is consistent with observational data when confounding cloud radiative effects are accounted for.
The study reconciles observational estimates with theoretical predictions of EP-T relationships.
Accurate assessment of EP-T sensitivity is crucial for understanding and projecting future flood risks and ecosystem impacts.