Impact of Shelf-Life Extension on Platelet Availability: Results from an Inventory Management Modeling Study

In Germany, demand for platelet transfusion is maintained or even increasing, despite a decrease in whole blood donations observed in the last decade. The shelf-life of platelet concentrates (PCs) in Germany is 4 days, which can be extended to 5 days if appropriate safety measures are used. This short shelf-life leads to decreased PC availability.

We investigated the impact of PC shelf-life extension on PC shortage, using a mathematical simulation model based on the PC production and delivery statistics of the Frankfurt Institute of the German Red Cross Transfusion Service of Baden-Württemberg-Hessen. We used a 2.2-year dataset for PC production and delivery as input data for a Monte Carlo inventory management simulation, focusing on PC shortage. The model generated the daily stock (expressed as mean number of PC units ± standard deviation), mean PC age at release, mean number of expired PC units, and shortage rates (i.e., requiring the release of more PCs than available), overall and by PC blood group.

Over 2.2 years, a total of 74,322 PC units were produced and 62,178 units were released at the Frankfurt Institute; the overall overproduction rate was 19.5%. Shortage rates decrease with an increase in PC shelf-life and/or increase in overproduction rates. At an overproduction rate of 20%, shortage rates would be reduced from 2.8% for a 4-day shelf-life to 0.7%, 0.3%, and 0.2%, for shelf-life lengths of 5, 6, and 7 days, respectively. Extending the PC shelf-life to 6 or 7 days would eliminate shortages almost entirely, including for rare bloods.

These results can inform blood services and regulatory authorities on the potential medical and economic impact of extending PC shelf-life to 6 or 7 days.