Spatiotemporal modeling of household's food insecurity levels in Ethiopia

The state of moderate and severe food insecurity in Ethiopia has not been significantly reduced for a long time due to cultural, natural, and manmade shocks, which cover most part of the country with considerable magnitude and have adverse effects on the health and economy. This temporal evolution of the wider geographic distribution of the food insecurity levels has not been investigated for the feeding culture and shocks effect in Ethiopia, though previous studies have indicated significant geographic distribution and related factors. In addition, the longtime zone-specific comprehensive drivers were not assessed. Therefore, this study focused on investigating the feeding culture-adjusted food insecurity levels (FCSL) and their evolutional sustainability across zones by identifying the factors causing each level of household's food insecurity tailored to a specific zone. In this study, Ethiopian socio-economic longitudinal data from years 2012, 2014, and 2016 with a sample size of 3835 households were analyzed. An ordinal spatiotemporal model with different interactions under empirical Bayes estimation was adopted, and the type III interaction with Markov random field was selected to reveal the evolution of FCSL sustainability across zones and find-out the causing factors of households to each level of food insecurity tailored to zone-level by analyzing the effects of diverse factors and shocks. The result reveals that a greater portion (52.07 %) of households' population is moderately and chronically food insecure. Basically, households living in neighboring zones have significantly similar food insecurity levels, and slight improvements were observed over time. This transition over time within neighboring zones, revealed that chronic food insecurity in neighboring zones has transited to moderate food insecurity, particularly in most of the northern and southwestern areas of Ethiopia. However, the interaction term showed that the change in food insecurity levels for households living in neighboring zones is similar at one time point, but the evolution is not sustainable. Therefore, working on major zone-specific factors, such as enhancing zone-level urbanization through improving market and road linkage to rural areas, education, employment, non-agricultural businesses, and promoting integrated farming by conserving soil with consideration of additional confounding factors, will bring change and can sustainably eradicate moderate and chronic food insecurity in zone households through controlling dependency ratios, shocks, and small land size farming. This study brings resilient, manageable, and zone-specific mitigation for households living in food-insecure and vulnerable zones.