Model predictions of global geologic hydrogen resources

Area of Science:

• Earth Science
• Energy Resource Assessment
• Geochemistry

Background:

• The potential of geologic hydrogen as a low-carbon energy resource remains largely unquantified.
• Understanding natural hydrogen occurrence and behavior is crucial for resource assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the magnitude of Earth's subsurface geologic hydrogen endowment.
• To model the potential in-place resource of natural hydrogen.

Main Methods:

• Combined knowledge of natural hydrogen occurrence with data from geologic analogs.
• Developed a mass balance model incorporating stochastic analysis to predict resource potential.

Main Results:

• Predicted a wide range for in-place geologic hydrogen resources (10^3 to 10^10 million metric tons).
• The most probable estimate for the resource is approximately 5.6 × 10^6 million metric tons.
• A recoverable fraction (1 × 10^5 million metric tons) could meet net-zero targets for ~200 years.
• This geologic hydrogen contains more energy than all proven natural gas reserves globally.

Conclusions:

• Geologic hydrogen represents a significant potential primary energy resource.
• Further research is warranted to fully understand and assess geologic hydrogen potential.
• The findings support the exploration of natural hydrogen as a key component of future energy strategies.