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Close-Up on Ambulance Service Estimation in Indonesia: Monte Carlo Simulation Study.

Syaribah N Brice1, Justin J Boutilier2, Geraint Palmer1

  • 1School of Mathematics, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom.

Interactive Journal of Medical Research
|December 13, 2024
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Estimating emergency medical service demand in Jakarta, this study found an annual need for 83,000-241,000 ambulance services and 0.9-2.6 million hospital emergency visits. These findings help assess current resource adequacy.

Keywords:
EMSSoutheast Asian countriesambulance servicesemergency medical serviceshospital emergency serviceslow-and-middle-income countriessurvey

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Emergency Medicine
  • Health Services Research

Background:

  • Emergency medical services are crucial for disaster response.
  • Understanding demand is vital for adequate resource allocation, like ambulances.
  • Data scarcity in Indonesia hinders accurate emergency service demand estimation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate annual hospital emergency visits in Jakarta.
  • To determine the corresponding demand for ambulance services in Jakarta.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized survey data, National Statistics reports, and hospital data for parameter estimation.
  • Estimated population, per capita emergency visits, emergency probability, and ambulance need rates.
  • Employed Monte Carlo simulation and naïve methods for demand estimation.

Main Results:

  • Estimated annual ambulance demand in Jakarta: 83,000 to 241,000.
  • Estimated annual hospital emergency visits: 0.9 to 2.6 million (assuming 9.3% ambulance usage).
  • Simulation method yielded lower estimates than naïve methods (P<.001).

Conclusions:

  • Provides crucial estimates for annual emergency service needs in Jakarta.
  • Offers insights into the adequacy of current ambulance services amid data limitations.
  • Highlights the utility of estimation methods when routine data is unavailable.