Close-Up on Ambulance Service Estimation in Indonesia: Monte Carlo Simulation Study

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Emergency Medicine
• Health Services Research

Background:

• Emergency medical services are crucial for disaster response.
• Understanding demand is vital for adequate resource allocation, like ambulances.
• Data scarcity in Indonesia hinders accurate emergency service demand estimation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate annual hospital emergency visits in Jakarta.
• To determine the corresponding demand for ambulance services in Jakarta.

Main Methods:

• Utilized survey data, National Statistics reports, and hospital data for parameter estimation.
• Estimated population, per capita emergency visits, emergency probability, and ambulance need rates.
• Employed Monte Carlo simulation and naïve methods for demand estimation.

Main Results:

• Estimated annual ambulance demand in Jakarta: 83,000 to 241,000.
• Estimated annual hospital emergency visits: 0.9 to 2.6 million (assuming 9.3% ambulance usage).
• Simulation method yielded lower estimates than naïve methods (P<.001).

Conclusions:

• Provides crucial estimates for annual emergency service needs in Jakarta.
• Offers insights into the adequacy of current ambulance services amid data limitations.
• Highlights the utility of estimation methods when routine data is unavailable.