Biological age and predicting future health care utilisation

Area of Science:

• Biomedical Gerontology
• Epigenetics
• Health Services Research

Background:

• Epigenetic clocks measure biological age, reflecting cumulative molecular damage.
• Healthcare utilization patterns are influenced by health status and aging.
• Predicting future healthcare needs is crucial for resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the predictive power of epigenetic biological age for future healthcare utilization.
• To compare the predictive performance of biological age versus chronological age for different healthcare services.

Main Methods:

• Utilized longitudinal data from the UK Understanding Society panel.
• Employed LASSO regression to identify predictors of healthcare utilization.
• Analyzed general practitioner (GP) consultations, outpatient (OP) visits, and hospital inpatient (IP) care.
• Accounted for pre-existing conditions, baseline health, and socio-economic factors.

Main Results:

• Epigenetic biological age predicted future GP consultations and IP care.
• Chronological age, not biological age, predicted future OP visits.
• Biological aging showed a stronger role in predicting future IP care compared to GP consultations.

Conclusions:

• Epigenetic biological age is a significant predictor of future healthcare utilization, especially for inpatient services.
• The predictive utility of biological age varies across different healthcare service types.
• Understanding biological aging can enhance predictions of future healthcare demands.