Agreement Between Office-Based and Laboratory-Based Globorisk Models and their Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases...

Area of Science:

• Cardiovascular Epidemiology
• Health Services Research
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a leading cause of mortality globally.
• Accurate CVD risk prediction models are crucial for targeted prevention strategies.
• Globorisk is a country-specific model estimating 10-year CVD risk.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the agreement between office- and laboratory-based Globorisk versions in a Turkish cohort.
• To assess the predictive ability of Globorisk for incident CVD over a 6-year follow-up.
• To determine the utility of the office-based Globorisk model in resource-limited environments.

Main Methods:

• Utilized baseline data from 5449 participants (aged 40-74) from the Türkiye Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Survey 2011.
• Calculated office- and laboratory-based Globorisk scores using demographic and clinical variables.
• Employed correlation, Bland-Altman analysis, and multivariable logistic regression for agreement and prediction assessment.

Main Results:

• A strong positive correlation (r=0.89) was observed between the two Globorisk versions.
• Office-based Globorisk showed narrower limits of agreement in males compared to females.
• Both models demonstrated similar discriminative performance (AUC: 0.68) and predictive accuracy for 6-year CVD.

Conclusions:

• The office-based Globorisk model demonstrates strong agreement and comparable predictive performance to the laboratory-based version.
• Age and systolic blood pressure were key predictors of 6-year CVD in both models.
• The office-based Globorisk is a viable alternative to the laboratory-based model, especially in settings with limited laboratory resources.