Identifying spatial drivers of soil heavy metal pollution risk integrating positive matrix factorization, machine...

Soil heavy metal (HMs) contamination poses significant ecological and health risks, yet the spatial drivers of HMs pollution remain poorly understood. This study integrates pollution risk assessment, positive matrix factorization, machine learning, and multi-scale geographically weighted regression to develop a framework for identifying the spatial drivers of soil HMs contamination risk in Yangtze River New City, China. Analysis of 7152 samples revealed that although average HMs concentrations were below national standards, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, and Ni exceeded local background levels. Four key factors were identified as drivers of HMs contamination: natural sources (30.36 %, influenced by soil type), mixed agricultural and transportation sources (29.56 %, driven by cropland, aquaculture, and road density), human activities (12.68 %, including population density and community activities), and industrial sources (27.42 %, linked to factories and enterprises). Regional variations indicated that industrial activities, transportation, and human activities primarily influenced health risks, while agriculture and natural factors had a greater impact on ecological and environmental capacity risks. These findings underscore the importance of considering spatial heterogeneity in HMs pollution risk assessments and offer insights for developing targeted, region-specific policies to mitigate pollution risks of soil HMs.