All-breed single-step genomic best linear unbiased predictor evaluations for fertility traits in US dairy cattle

The US dairy cattle genetic evaluation is currently a multistep process, including multibreed traditional BLUP estimations followed by single-breed SNP effects estimation. Single-step GBLUP (ssGBLUP) combines pedigree and genomic data for all breeds in one analysis. Unknown parent groups (UPG) or metafounders (MF) can be used to address missing pedigree information. Fertility traits are notably difficult to evaluate due to low heritabilities, changing management, and a higher recent emphasis on selection to move in a favorable direction. We assessed bias, dispersion, and accuracy of fertility traits in all-breed US dairy cattle using pedigree-based BLUP (PBLUP) and ssGBLUP with UPG or MF; with 5% or 10% residual polygenic effect. Validation methods included the linear regression method and comparison of early and late deregressed proofs for Holstein and Jersey breeds. By comparing MF or UPG in PBLUP, we observed similar results in terms of bias, dispersion, and correlations between early and recent predictions. When genomics was used, ssGBLUP with MF and 10% residual polygenic effect consistently outperformed other models regarding bias, dispersion, and correlations. Compared with multistep results, ssGBLUP with MF and 10% residual polygenic effect showed less bias and increased correlations but slightly overdispersed estimates. Overall, genomic prediction of fertility traits using ssGBLUP was accurate and unbiased, more so with MF than with UPG.