Exploring machine learning algorithms to predict not using modern family planning methods among reproductive age...

The use of the modern family planning method provides chances for women to reach optimal child spacing, increase quality of life, increase economic status, achieve the desired family size, and prevent unsafe abortions and maternal and perinatal deaths. However, use modern family planning is low among reproductive age women in East Africa. Therefore, this study aimed at predicting not using modern family planning and identifying its associated factors among reproductive age women in east Africa using machine learning methods.

The data set was obtained from a demographic health survey in East Africa. This study used data on weighted sample of 92,564 women who were in their reproductive age. Python software was utilized for data processing, and machine learning models such as Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), XGB (Extreme Gradient Boosting), SVM (Support Victor Machine), and K-Nearest Neighbor Decision Tree (DT) were implemented. In this work, we evaluated the predictive models' performance using performance assessment criteria such as accuracy, precision, recall, and the AUC curve.

In this study, 92,564 reproductive women's was used in the final analysis. Among the proposed machine learning models, XGB performed best overall in the proposed classifier, with an accuracy of 98.7%, precision of 99.8%, recall of 98%, 99.9% AUC score, had high specificity 98%, sensitivity 99.8%, and low error rate discovery was 0.013%. The most significant determinants of not using modern family planning in East Africa: lack of education, age 25-29, living in a rural area, being single, not knowing how to use a contraceptive, and smoking cigarette.

Extreme Gradient Boosting proved effective in predicting not using modern family planning, offering valuable insights for interventions and policy decisions in East Africa. Machine learning could help achieve early prediction and intervention on reproductive women's not using modern family planning. This leads to a recommendation for policy direction to reduce child and maternal mortality and improve living standards in east Africa.