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Beyond the underlying cause of death: an algorithm to study multi-morbidity at death
Francesco Grippo1, Luisa Frova2, Marilena Pappagallo2
1Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT), Viale Liegi, 13, 00198, Rome, Italy. frgrippo@istat.it.
Analyzing multiple causes of death reveals variations in multi-morbidity across countries. Our algorithm helps understand these differences by assigning roles to each cause listed on death certificates.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Gerontology
Background:
- Increasing life expectancy leads to higher prevalence of multi-morbidity.
- Cause-of-death data can monitor multi-morbidity, but requires analyzing all listed causes, not just the underlying one.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply an algorithm for classifying the role of each cause on death certificates.
- To analyze multi-cause-of-death data to understand cross-country variations in multi-morbidity.
Main Methods:
- Developed an algorithm based on WHO rules to assign roles (originating, precipitating, associated, ill-defined) to causes on death certificates.
- Applied the algorithm to death records from Italy, France, Spain, and the US in 2017.
Main Results:
- Average number of originating causes was similar across countries.
- Proportion of death certificates with multiple originating causes (multi-morbidity) ranged from 10% (US) to 18% (Spain).
- Proportion of deaths with associated causes was higher in Italy (41%) and US (42%) compared to France (29%) and Spain (27%).
Conclusions:
- The algorithm clarifies cross-country differences in the average number of causes on death certificates.
- Findings highlight the need for improved multiple cause-of-death analysis methods to better understand multi-morbidity.
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