Groundwater flow system of the Abijata-Langano-Ziway lakes basin, Ethiopia

The Abijata-Langano-Ziway Lakes Basin (ALZLB) is situated in the Central part of the Main Ethiopian Rift. The availability and dynamics of groundwater in the Abijata-Langano-Ziway Lakes Basin (ALZLB) are primarily controlled by its geological and hydrogeological characteristics, shaped by volcanic-tectonic and sedimentary processes. The basin faces significant challenges, including drastic change in land use pattern, rapid population growth sustained by subsistence farming, over-extraction of water resources, and vulnerability to climate change and fragile ecosystems. These issues emphasize the urgent need for effective water resource management. To understand this complex system, a numerical groundwater flow model was employed to characterize the groundwater flow system within the ALZLB and examine its interaction with surface water bodies. The MODFLOW model translates the conceptual understanding of the basin's hydrogeology into a mathematical representation, allowing for numerical analysis. The model incorporates input parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and boundary conditions representing groundwater inflow and outflow. Steady-state numerical calculation was used to characterize the qualitative hydrogeological conceptual model into numerical representation and thereby describe the groundwater system. The calibrated model exhibited excellent agreement between simulated and observed groundwater levels. Statistical measures indicated a strong correlation (R² = 0.98) and high efficiency (NSE = 0.97) in replicating the observed data. Additionally, the Mean Error (ME) of -8.3 m suggests minimal bias in the simulations. Further analysis of the histogram residuals revealed that a significant portion of the simulated values (65 % and 82 %) fell within ±20 m and ±30 m of the observed groundwater levels, respectively. This revealed the model's accuracy in capturing the groundwater system's behavior. The model identified groundwater recharge and constant head boundaries as the primary sources of groundwater inflow, contributing 445 million cubic meters per year (MCM/year) and 90 MCM/year, respectively. Conversely, constant head boundaries represented the most significant outflow pathway, with a simulated discharge of 519 MCM/year. The calibrated balance between inflow and outflow (discrepancy of -0.75 %) confirms that the model effectively simulates steady-state groundwater flow conditions. The calibrated model demonstrates the model's capability to accurately represent the basin's groundwater system.