Effect of Excess Mortality on Longevity During the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Asia

Throughout the twentieth century and beyond, a global trend of declining mortality rates and an increase in life expectancies was noted until the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A reduction in life expectancies was observed in most countries, including South Asia, during 2020 and 2021 due to the excess mortality caused by the pandemic.

This study aims to examine the change in life expectancy in selected South Asian countries and the relative change in age- and sex-specific mortality rates over time due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to that, we further examined the effect of a pandemic on a short-term forecast of life expectancy.

Estimated age- and sex-specific mortality rates of seven South Asian countries were utilised from the 2022 revision of the World Population Prospects (WPP 2022). Changes in life expectancies are estimated using standard life table estimation techniques. To estimate the relative change in age- and sex-specific mortality levels and change in mortality forecasts as a result of the pandemic, we applied the Lee-Carter method.

The application of the Lee-Carter model revealed age- and sex-specific variations in mortality improvements, reflecting heightened mortality rates within the region. This decline in mortality improvement is highly observed for both sexes in Pakistan, followed by India and Bangladesh. Populations exhibiting slower rates of improvement throughout their lifespan demonstrated minimal alterations attributable to the pandemic's impact. Comparative life expectancy forecasts indicate a slower rise in post-pandemic life expectancy at birth and in remaining life expectancies at older ages among most of these populations.

These findings highlight the pandemic's profound impact on mortality dynamics, emphasising the need for targeted interventions to mitigate its long-term effects on population health and longevity.