A Model-Based Evaluation of Noninvasive Biomarkers to Reflect Histological Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Scores

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) comprises multiple heterogeneous pathophysiological conditions commonly evaluated by suboptimal liver biopsies. This study aimed to elucidate the role of 13 diverse histological liver scores in assessing NAFLD disease activity using an in silico pharmacometric model-based approach. We further sought to investigate various noninvasive patient characteristics for their ability to reflect all 13 histological scores and the NAFLD activity score (NAS).

A histological liver score model was built upon 13 biopsy-based pathological features (binary and categorical scores) from the extensive NASH-CRN (Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis-Clinical Research Network) observational NAFLD Database study (n = 914 adults) using the concept of item response theory. The impact of 69 noninvasive biomarkers potentially reflecting NAFLD activity was quantitatively described across the entire spectrum of all 13 histological scores.

The model suggested that four different disease facets underlie the cardinal NAFLD features (steatosis, inflammation, hepatocellular ballooning (= NAS); fibrosis; highest correlations: corr_{ballooning-fibrosis} = 0.69/corr_{inflammation-ballooning} = 0.62/corr_{steatosis-inflammation} = 0.60). The 13 histological liver scores were best described by contrasting noninvasive biomarkers: Age and platelets best reflected the fibrosis score, while alanine and aspartate aminotransferase best described the NAS, with diverging contributions of the three individual NAS components to the results of the overall NAS.

An in silico histological liver score model allowed to simultaneously quantitatively analyze 13 features beyond NAS and fibrosis, characterizing different disease facets underlying NAFLD and revealing the contrasting ability of 69 noninvasive biomarkers to reflect the diverse histological (sub-)scores.