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Updated: May 5, 2026

Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Development of a nomogram for individualized prediction of acute gastrointestinal injury in polytrauma patients
Cong Zhang1, Zhaohui Tang1, Teding Chang1
1Department of Trauma Surgery, Emergency Surgery & Surgical Critical, Tongji Trauma Center, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430030, China.
Objective:
Previous reports have indicated the occurrence of acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI) in critically ill individuals. Yet, there is limited information regarding the frequency and potential causes of AGI in individuals with polytrauma. The complicated diagnostic tools often mistaken and mislead the evaluation of AGI. The objective of this research is to create a nomogram that can predict the likelihood of AGI in individuals with polytrauma.
Results:
Among 836 polytrauma patients, AGI occurred in 61.2%, significantly higher than the 9.5% in monotrauma patients (P < 0.001).The predictors included Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 16, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) < 8, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) > 16, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) > 5, presence of shock, lactate level > 3.2, and Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time (APTT) > 40 in the individualized prediction nomogram. The nomogram showed good discrimination (C-index = 0.719) and satisfactory calibration.
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