Spatio-temporal analysis of extreme air pollution and risk assessment

Extreme air pollution poses global health and environmental threats, necessitating robust policy interventions. This study first analyses the surface mass concentration of major aerosols (such as black carbon, organic carbon, dust, sea salts, and sulphates) to estimate global PM_2.5 concentrations from 1980 to 2023. The developed model-estimated PM_2.5 database was validated against data from 526 cities worldwide, showing strong accuracy, with RMSE, r, and R² values of 7.47 μg/m³, 0.87, and 0.75, respectively. The motivation arises from the need to understand whether recent pollution increases are driven by rising emissions or natural variability, given the significant impacts on life and property. To assess both short-and long-term pollution trends, magnitudes, and risks, we proposed twelve novel extreme pollution indices, which comprehensively characterize the spatial and temporal variations in pollution. The highest PM_2.5 concentrations were observed in regions near the Saharan Desert, reaching up to 90,000 μg/m³. However, significant PM_2.5TOT (total pollution) concentrations were also found in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and eastern China, ranging from 20,000 to 40,000 μg/m³. Persistent pollution burdens North Africa for approximately 350 days annually, while the IGP and eastern China experience extreme pollution for over 200 days yearly. Other pollution indices highlight the intensity and frequency of pollution in regions such as North Africa, IGP, Eastern Russia, Western USA, and Eastern China, revealing critical regional air quality challenges. Our analysis identifies cities in low-income and middle-income countries, such as New Delhi, Lahore, Dhaka, and Dammam, as being at extreme risk scores above 90 out of 100. Meanwhile, cities like Ghaziabad, Chongqing, Kolkata, Mumbai, and East London fall into the high-risk category, scoring between 60 and 80. Conversely, most cities in the EU, USA, and Canada are at very low risk, a result of the effective implementation of strategic air pollution norms and policies. The study promotes a phased approach for low- and middle-income regions, emphasizing achievable air quality standards, low-cost monitoring, targeted interventions, urban greening, public awareness, and innovative financing for improvements.