[Spatial-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Land Use Carbon Emissions in Shandong Province]

Exploring the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of land use carbon emissions and their influencing factors is of great significance for the optimization of land use structure, the formulation of emission reduction policies, and the development of a regional low-carbon economy. Based on land cover and energy consumption data, a multi-parameter land use carbon emission accounting system was constructed to calculate land use carbon emissions in Shandong Province. Moreover, the spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of land use carbon emissions were analyzed based on the Gini coefficient and logarithmic mean Divisia index. The results indicated that ① From 2000 to 2020, construction land, woodland, and water area showed a generally increasing trend, while cropland, grassland, and unused land area showed a decreasing trend. The spatial change in land use types was mainly concentrated in the conversion of cropland into construction land （1.09×10⁴ km²）. ② In the study period, carbon emissions from land use in Shandong Province increased from 52.70 million tons to 352.97 million tons, and the annual growth rate decreased from 13.40% to 7.28%, construction land was the primary carbon source, and cropland sequestered carbon. ③ Land use carbon emissions showed significant spatial imbalance at a grid level （Gini > 0.5）, with an overall spatial pattern of "high in the east" and "low in the west." ④ Economic development was the dominant leading factor for the growth of carbon emissions from land use in Shandong Province （contribution rate of 121.33%）, followed by the construction land area effect （33.39%）, while energy structure （-11.12%）, energy efficiency （-20.16%）, and population size effects （-23.44%） limited the increase in carbon emissions.