[Spatio-temporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions and Emission Reduction Paths in the Northern Farming-pastoral Ecotone]

The farming-pastoral ecotone has an important strategic place in the energy supply and ecological layout of China. Thus, exploring the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of carbon emissions in this region will help to deeply understand the information on the historical carbon emissions in China's energy production bases and provide data references for the formulation of differentiated emission reduction policies and the promotion of regional energy-saving and carbon-reducing measures, which is of great significance for the realization of low-carbon economic development. This study constructed a spatialization model of carbon emissions based on land use, night lighting, and provincial energy consumption data； explored the spatiotemporal changes and aggregation characteristics of carbon emissions in the farming-pastoral ecotone from 1995 to 2020 using the global Moran's index and hotspot analysis； and then combined it with the slack-based measure model to calculate the carbon emission efficiency and emission reduction potential of each city from 2010 to 2020 and classify cities to propose a differentiated emission reduction path. The results showed that, firstly, the estimated results at the prefectural city level of the carbon emission spatialization model constructed in this study with multi-source data could reach an R² of 0.92 for a linear fit. Secondly, the total carbon emissions in the farming-pastoral ecotone increased from 176.29 million tons in 1995 to 1 014.51 million tons in 2020. However, the carbon emission intensity and growth rate both decreased, which was related to adjusting the energy structure and improving energy efficiency. Regarding spatial distribution, the cities with high carbon emissions over time were Datong, Baotou, and Yulin in order. Thirdly, the carbon emissions in the study area showed a significant global spatial positive correlation at the county level, with the hot spots mainly located at the junction of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, while the cold spots were extended from Yanan City to Qingyang and Guyuan City after 2010. Finally, based on the differences in carbon emission efficiency and reduction potential, cities could be classified into four types： "high-efficiency and high potential," "low-efficiency and high potential," "high-efficiency and low potential," and "low-efficiency and low potential" to implement targeted emission reduction strategies.