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Mathematical analysis of fractional Chlamydia pandemic model
Zuhur Alqahtani1, Areej Almuneef2, Mahmoud H DarAssi3
1Department of Mathematical Science, College of Science, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, P.O.Box 84428, 11671, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. zumalqahtani@pnu.edu.sa.
Scientific Reports
|December 28, 2024
Summary
This study introduces a fractional Chlamydia pandemic model, proving its stability and identifying key disease-influencing parameters through advanced analysis and simulations for better disease control strategies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Fractional Calculus
Background:
- Chlamydia infections represent a significant global health burden.
- Mathematical modeling is crucial for understanding and predicting infectious disease dynamics.
- Fractional calculus offers advanced tools for modeling complex biological systems.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and analyze a Caputo-fractional mathematical model for Chlamydia transmission.
- To investigate the stability properties of the fractional Chlamydia model.
- To identify key parameters driving Chlamydia pandemic dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Development of a Caputo-fractional differential equation model for Chlamydia.
- Analysis of model positivity, boundedness, existence, and uniqueness of solutions.
- Investigation of local and global asymptotic stability of equilibrium points.
- Sensitivity analysis using Latin Hypercube sampling and PRCCs.
- Numerical simulations to explore parameter impacts.
Main Results:
- The fractional Chlamydia model was proven to be positive and bounded.
- The disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable.
- A unique endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number exceeds 1.
- Sensitivity analysis identified critical parameters influencing disease spread.
Conclusions:
- The developed fractional model provides a robust framework for studying Chlamydia pandemics.
- Stability analysis confirms conditions for disease eradication or persistence.
- Parameter identification aids in targeted intervention strategies for Chlamydia control.
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