Machine learning-based prognostic modeling in gallbladder cancer using clinical data and pre-treatment
Masatoyo Nakajo1, Daisuke Hirahara2, Megumi Jinguji3
1Department of Radiology, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Kagoshima University, 8-35-1 Sakuragaoka, Kagoshima, 890-8544, Japan. toyo.nakajo@dolphin.ocn.ne.jp.
Objectives:
This study evaluates the effectiveness of machine learning (ML) models that incorporate clinical and 2-deoxy-2-[18F]fluoro-D-glucose ([18F]-FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET)-radiomic features for predicting outcomes in gallbladder cancer patients.
Materials And Methods:
The study analyzed 52 gallbladder cancer patients who underwent pre-treatment [18F]-FDG-PET/CT scans between January 2011 and December 2021. Twenty-seven patients were assigned to the training cohort between January 2011 and January 2018, and the data randomly split into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets. The independent test cohort consisted of 25 patients between February 2018 and December 2021. Eight clinical features (T stage, N stage, M stage, Union for International Cancer Control [UICC] stage, histology, tumor size, carcinoembryonic antigen level, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level) and 49 radiomic features were used to forecast progression-free survival (PFS). Three feature selection methods were applied including the univariate statistical feature selection test method, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression method and recursive feature elimination method, and two ML algorithms (Cox proportional hazard and random survival forest [RSF]) were employed. Predictive performance was assessed using the concordance index (C-index).
Results:
Two clinical variables (UICC stage, N stage) and three radiomic features (total lesion glycolysis, grey-level size-zone matrix_grey level non-uniformity and grey-level run-length matrix_run-length non-uniformity) were identified by the statistical feature selection method as significant for PFS prediction. The RSF model incorporating these features demonstrated strong predictive performance, with C-indices above 0.80 in both training and testing sets (training 0.81, testing 0.89). This model almost closely matched the actual and predicted progression timelines with a low mean absolute error of 1.435, a median absolute error of 0.082, and a root mean square error of 2.359.
Conclusion:
This study highlights the potential of using ML approaches with clinical and pre-treatment [18F]-FDG-PET radiomic data for predicting the prognosis of gallbladder cancer.
