The Metapopulation Bridge to Macroevolutionary Speciation Rates: A Conceptual Framework and Empirical Test

Area of Science:

• Evolutionary Biology
• Ecology
• Population Genetics

Background:

• Understanding macroevolutionary patterns requires linking microevolutionary processes to speciation.
• Species with traits promoting metapopulation stability are hypothesized to speciate more frequently.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a framework for assessing the link between metapopulation persistence and phylogenetic speciation rates.
• To test if population-level demographic properties predict macroevolutionary diversification.

Main Methods:

• Developed a framework to relate metapopulation persistence to speciation rates.
• Applied the framework to a long-term dataset of North American demersal fish communities.
• Analyzed phylogenetic signal in metapopulation persistence and its correlation with speciation rates.

Main Results:

• One index of metapopulation persistence exhibited phylogenetic signal, indicating trait-demography links.
• No significant relationship was found between demographic properties and speciation rates.
• Ecological dynamics at decadal scales appear decoupled from clade dynamics over millions of years.

Conclusions:

• Population-level ecological dynamics may not reliably predict macroevolutionary diversification.
• Extrapolating short-term population processes to long-term biodiversity dynamics requires caution.
• Further research is needed to understand the disconnect between ecological persistence and speciation.