Climate change projections for Diamer Division in lesser Himalayas using multi-global climate model ensemble

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Environmental Science
• Glaciology

Background:

• Northern Pakistan faces significant climate change impacts affecting ecosystems and biodiversity.
• Global climate models (GCMs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are crucial tools for understanding future climate scenarios.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate future projections of temperature and precipitation trends in Pakistan's northern region.
• To analyze historical climate data and model future climate scenarios using GCMs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).

Main Methods:

• Utilized climate model intercomparison projects and GCMs (RCP4.5, RCP8.5).
• Analyzed historical temperature and precipitation data from 1975-2005.
• Projected climate trends for near-term (2010-2029) and mid-term (2030-2050) periods.

Main Results:

• Historical data (1975-2005) show an 8°C rise in maximum temperature (Tmax) in Chilas and a temperature decrease in Astore.
• Projected Tmax increases by 6°C in Chilas and decreases by 2°C in Babusar (2010-2050).
• Historical precipitation increased by 20 mm annually in Babusar and decreased by 40 mm in Astore. Future projections (RCP8.5) indicate maximum precipitation in Babusar (25 mm) and minimum in Astore (40 mm). RCP4.5 shows 35 mm (Babusar) and 15 mm (Astore).

Conclusions:

• Observed and projected climate changes are deteriorating glaciers, snow cover, and land use systems.
• Altered precipitation patterns (increased winter, decreased summer) contribute to land degradation, impacting forests and water resources.
• Cumulative impacts exacerbate poverty and raise concerns about the region's long-term sustainability.