Prediction of neonatal survival among Pacific Islander preterm births in the US

Predicting neonatal survival is essential for targeting interventions to reduce neonatal mortality. Pacific Islanders have been underrepresented in existing prediction tools and have unique, maternal obesity-related risk factors for both preterm birth and neonatal mortality. Using neonatal sex, birth weight, and gestational age, we developed a graphical tool for neonatal survival among Pacific Islander singletons in the United States.

Birth-infant death data files from the United States National Center for Health Statistics were used (2014-2018). Pacific Islander mothers and singletons without congenital anomalies born between 22-36 gestational weeks were included. Poisson regression models were used to predict neonatal mortality (<28 days of life) rate including neonatal sex, birth weight, and gestational age in weeks as predictors. Predicted survival rates in the graphical tool were calculated as "1 minus mortality rate".

Of the 5192 included neonates, the neonatal mortality rate was 2.0%; 43.5% of mothers had pre-pregnancy obesity, and 16.5% of neonates were born large-for-gestational age. Birth weight and gestational age had a non-linear association with neonatal death, and their interaction was included in the model. Retaining neonatal sex, models with gestational age at birth or both birth weight and gestational age at birth performed better than the model with birth weight only.

This is the first graphical tool for neonatal survival prediction among preterm-born Pacific Islander singletons in the United States. Using only neonatal sex, birth weight, and gestational age, this graphical tool is a straightforward reference for survival among groups of neonates with similar characteristics.