Banning new gas boilers as a no-regret mitigation option

Area of Science:

• Energy policy
• Environmental science
• Economic modeling

Background:

• Low adoption of low-carbon heating systems in Europe necessitates policy intervention.
• Fossil fuel boiler installations face potential bans to meet climate goals.

Purpose of the Study:

• To simulate the impacts of a fossil fuel boiler ban in France.
• To analyze effects on the energy system, carbon neutrality, and costs.
• To assess distributional consequences across different household types.

Main Methods:

• Scenario modeling under significant uncertainties (11,664 scenarios).
• Analysis of energy system dynamics and efficiency gains.
• Evaluation of cost-effectiveness and equity implications.

Main Results:

• The ban drives substantial energy system changes and efficiency improvements.
• Carbon neutrality is more likely, and total system costs decrease in over 75% of scenarios.
• The ban, with subsidies, reduces inequality for owner-occupiers but disadvantages private renters.

Conclusions:

• A ban on new fossil fuel boilers is a viable policy for enhancing energy efficiency and achieving carbon neutrality in France.
• The policy presents a net economic benefit across a majority of simulated scenarios.
• Careful consideration of housing tenure is crucial to mitigate adverse distributional effects on private renters.