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Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Green's Functions, and Nonlinear

Valerio Lucarini1, Mickaël D Chekroun2,3

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Climate change detection and attribution (DA) studies link observed patterns to drivers using the optimal fingerprinting method (OFM). This research provides a theoretical basis for OFM, enhancing its application in climate science and beyond.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Complex Systems Theory

Background:

  • Detection and attribution (DA) studies are vital for climate policy, aiming to distinguish human and natural influences on observed climate changes.
  • The optimal fingerprinting method (OFM) is a key technique in DA, seeking to attribute climate patterns to specific drivers.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To establish the physical and dynamical basis of the optimal fingerprinting method (OFM) using response theory for nonequilibrium systems.
  • To clarify the assumptions, advantages, and limitations of OFM and its application in climate change attribution.
  • To extend the OFM framework to nonlinear response regimes and explore its broader applicability.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing response theory for nonequilibrium systems to provide a theoretical foundation for OFM.
  • Performing DA on climate models, including an energy balance model and a low-resolution coupled climate model.
  • Developing and explaining degenerate fingerprinting for early warning indicators of tipping points.
  • Extending OFM to nonlinear response regimes.

Main Results:

  • Response theory provides the physical and dynamical basis for OFM and the concept of causality in attribution.
  • The study clarifies the theoretical underpinnings of OFM, enhancing its robustness and interpretability.
  • DA experiments on climate models validated the theoretical framework.
  • The OFM was successfully extended to nonlinear response regimes and degenerate fingerprinting was explained.

Conclusions:

  • The OFM has a strong theoretical foundation in nonequilibrium response theory, improving climate change attribution.
  • The method's applicability extends beyond climate science to diverse stochastic systems, including ecosystems, social sciences, and finance.
  • This work offers a unified framework for understanding and applying OFM across various scientific disciplines.