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Modeling Hydrogen Markets: Energy System Model Development Status and Decarbonization Scenario Results
M W Melaina1, C S Lenox2, M Browning3
1Boston Government Services, LLC., Oak Ridge, TN, USA.
Energy and Climate Change
|January 6, 2025
Summary
Hydrogen is a key energy carrier for decarbonizing heavy industries, but energy system models show highly variable results for its market uptake. Harmonizing model inputs is crucial for consistent hydrogen future predictions.
Area of Science:
- Energy Systems Analysis
- Climate Change Mitigation
- Hydrogen Economy
Background:
- Hydrogen offers a pathway to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in hard-to-decarbonize sectors like transportation and industry.
- Existing energy system models struggle to accurately represent hydrogen technologies, leading to inconsistent decarbonization scenario results.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the development status and decarbonization scenario outcomes of 15 energy system models within the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37).
- To identify key factors contributing to variability in hydrogen market uptake predictions.
Main Methods:
- Comparative analysis of 15 energy system models participating in EMF37.
- Examination of model inputs, scope of hydrogen end-use markets, and technology assumptions.
- Evaluation of 2050 market uptake results under various decarbonization scenarios.
Main Results:
- Significant variability exists in hydrogen technology representation, market scope, and input assumptions across models.
- Most models predict increased hydrogen uptake with stricter decarbonization constraints, but some require high carbon prices.
- Hydrogen market success shows an inverse relationship with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.
Conclusions:
- Energy system models yield diverse hydrogen market uptake predictions, ranging from under 10 MMT to a potential upper range of 42-223 MMT by 2050.
- Harmonizing input assumptions and competition scope in energy system models is essential for achieving more consistent and reliable results.
- Further research and standardization in modeling approaches are needed to accurately forecast hydrogen's role in future energy systems.
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