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A Predictive Nomogram for Selective Screening of Chronic Kidney Disease: A Population-Based Study

Nghia H Vo1, Bui V Pham2, Nghia N Nguyen1

  • 1Can Tho University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Can Tho, Vietnam.

Canadian Journal of Kidney Health and Disease
|January 7, 2025
PubMed

Insights

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects 13.1% of Vietnamese adults. Age, hypertension, and diabetes are key predictors, enabling targeted screening for this common condition.

Area of Science:

  • Nephrology
  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant global health issue, linked to increased disability, reduced quality of life, and mortality.
  • Many CKD cases are asymptomatic in early stages, leading to delayed diagnosis and treatment.
  • Early detection and risk stratification are crucial for managing CKD progression and its complications.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine the prevalence of CKD in the Vietnamese adult population.
  • To develop a predictive model and nomogram for identifying individuals at risk of CKD.
  • To provide insights for targeted screening strategies in Vietnam.

Main Methods:

  • A cross-sectional, population-based study involving 1490 Vietnamese adults (533 men, 957 women).
  • CKD diagnosis based on albumin-to-creatinine ratio and/or estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using CKD-EPI 2009 equation, following KDIGO 2012 guidelines.
  • Bayesian Model Averaging was employed to identify the optimal predictive model for CKD.

Main Results:

  • The overall prevalence of CKD was 13.1% (95% CI: 11.6-14.6%), with higher prevalence in women (13.8%) than men (11.8%).
  • The optimal predictive model for CKD included age, hypertension, and diabetes.
  • Key predictors were age (OR per 5-year increase: 1.19), hypertension (OR: 2.08), and diabetes (OR: 1.69). The model's predictive accuracy (AUC) was 0.7.

Conclusions:

  • CKD is a common condition among Vietnamese adults.
  • A simplified predictive model incorporating age, hypertension, and diabetes can effectively identify individuals requiring selective CKD screening.
  • These findings support the development of targeted public health interventions for CKD prevention and management in Vietnam.
Abstract

Keywords:
chronic kidney diseasenomogrampredictive modelrisk factors

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