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Updated: Jun 3, 2025
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Applicability Analysis of Assessment Methods for Morphological Parameters of Corroded Steel Bars
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Bayesian Assessment of Corrosion-Related Failures in Steel Pipelines
Fabrizio Ruggeri1, Enrico Cagno2, Franco Caron2
1Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche-Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche, I-20133 Milano, Italy.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|January 8, 2025
Summary
This study analyzes gas pipeline failures caused by corrosion, finding that corrosion behaves differently based on type. Installing cathodically protected pipes is recommended for most urban gas distribution networks.
Area of Science:
- Engineering
- Materials Science
- Risk Analysis
Background:
- Gas pipeline integrity is crucial for urban infrastructure.
- Corrosion is a primary failure mechanism in steel pipelines.
- Understanding corrosion-specific failure probabilities is essential for risk management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the probability of gas escapes from steel pipelines due to various corrosion types.
- To analyze failure data from an urban gas distribution network.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of network design and maintenance strategies.
Main Methods:
- Utilized real failure data from an urban gas distribution network.
- Employed a Bayesian framework to estimate models.
- Developed an elementary multinomial model for network design analysis.
- Applied a non-homogeneous Poisson process for maintenance analysis.
- Focused on expert opinion elicitation for model parameterization.
Main Results:
- Corrosion processes exhibit distinct behaviors depending on the specific type of corrosion.
- Failure probabilities vary significantly across different corrosion mechanisms.
- Expert opinions were successfully integrated into the probabilistic models.
Conclusions:
- The type of corrosion is a critical factor influencing gas pipeline failure probability.
- Implementing cathodic protection for steel pipelines is advisable in most scenarios.
- Probabilistic modeling provides valuable insights into pipeline integrity and maintenance.
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