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Bayesian Assessment of Corrosion-Related Failures in Steel Pipelines
Fabrizio Ruggeri1, Enrico Cagno2, Franco Caron2
1Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche-Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche, I-20133 Milano, Italy.
Abstract:
The probability of gas escapes from steel pipelines due to different types of corrosion is studied with real failure data from an urban gas distribution network. Both the design and maintenance of the network are considered, identifying and estimating (in a Bayesian framework) an elementary multinomial model in the first case, and a more sophisticated non-homogeneous Poisson process in the second case. Special attention is paid to the elicitation of the experts' opinions. We conclude that the corrosion process behaves quite differently depending on the type of corrosion, and that, in most cases, cathodically protected pipes should be installed.
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