Learning to Train and to Explain a Deep Survival Model with Large-Scale Ovarian Cancer Transcriptomic Data

Background/Objectives: Ovarian cancer is a complex disease with poor outcomes that affects women worldwide. The lack of successful therapeutic options for this malignancy has led to the need to identify novel biomarkers for patient stratification. Here, we aim to develop the outcome predictors based on the gene expression data as they may serve to identify categories of patients who are more likely to respond to certain therapies. Methods: We used The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) ovarian cancer transcriptomic data from 372 patients and approximately 16,600 genes to train and evaluate the deep learning survival models. In addition, we collected an in-house validation dataset of 12 patients to assess the performance of the trained survival models for their direct use in clinical practice. Despite deceptive generalization capabilities, we demonstrated how our model can be interpreted to uncover biological processes associated with survival. We calculated the contributions of the input genes to the output of the best trained model and derived the corresponding molecular pathways. Results: These pathways allowed us to stratify the TCGA patients into high-risk and low-risk groups (p-value 0.025). We validated the stratification ability of the identified pathways on the in-house dataset consisting of 12 patients (p-value 0.229) and on the external clinical and molecular dataset consisting of 274 patients (p-value 0.006). Conclusions: The deep learning-based models for survival prediction with RNA-seq data could be used to detect and interpret the gene-sets associated with survival in ovarian cancer patients and open a new avenue for future research.