Computed Tomography Evaluation of Extracellular Volume for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Severe Renal...

Introduction: Extracellular volume (ECV) analysis using computed tomography is recognized as a potential method for diagnostic application. It is currently the only noninvasive method for quantitatively evaluating myocardial fibrosis in dialysis patients for whom gadolinium contrast agents are contraindicated. In this study, we assessed the utility of ECV measurement via CT in the left ventricular (LV) myocardium (LVM) to predict major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in dialysis patients. Materials and methods: We analyzed 57 dialysis patients who underwent cardiac CT and assessed the utility of LVM ECV (LV-ECV) for predicting MACEs. All the patients were followed for a median of 11 months, and MACEs occurred in 15 cases (26%). Results: LV-ECV and plasma brain natriuretic peptide levels were higher in subjects with MACEs than those without (40.29 ± 8.23% vs. 33.76 ± 4.60% and 1481 ± 997 vs. 807 ± 1109 pg/mL; both p < 0.05). Significant valvular disease was more frequently detected in patients with MACEs than those without (60% vs. 24%; p = 0.023). Serum hematocrit levels were significantly lower in patients with MACEs than those without (29 ± 5 vs. 34 ± 5; p < 0.001). The administration of statin was significantly lower in patients with MACEs than in those without (13% vs. 48%; p = 0.029). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed using LV-ECV for predicting MACEs. The area under the curve was 0.80, and the best cut-off value of LV-ECV was 37.26% (p = 0.0003). In a Cox proportional hazards model, LV-ECV ≥ 37.26% was the only significant independent predictor of MACEs (p = 0.020). Conclusions: LV-ECV measured using CT is a useful predictor of MACEs in dialysis patients.