Machine-learning methodologies to predict disease progression in chronic hepatitis B in Africa
Hailemichael Desalegn1,2, Xianchen Yang3,4, Yi-Syuan Yen3,5
1Medical Department, St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Background:
Little is known about the determinants of disease progression among African patients with chronic HBV infection.
Methods:
We used machine-learning models with longitudinal data to establish predictive algorithms in a well-characterized cohort of Ethiopian HBV-infected patients without baseline liver fibrosis. Disease progression was defined as an increase in liver stiffness to >7.9 kPa or initiation of treatment based on meeting the eligibility criteria.
Results:
Twenty-four of 551 patients (4.4%) experienced disease progression after a median follow-up time of 69 months. A random forest model based on a combination of available laboratory tests (standard hematology and biochemistry) demonstrated the best predictive properties with the AUROC ranging from 0.82 to 0.88.
Conclusion:
We conclude that combined metrics based on simple and available laboratory tests had good predictive properties and should be explored further in larger HBV cohorts.
