Development of a novel calculator to predict gonadotropin dose and oocyte yield in oocyte cryopreservation cycles

To develop a predictive model for estimating the total dose of gonadotropins and the number mature oocytes in planned oocyte cryopreservation cycles.

In this retrospective study, oocyte cryopreservation cycles recorded in the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System Database from 2013 to 2018 were analyzed. Bivariate copula additive models for location, scale, and shape were performed to create a predictive model for estimating total dose of gonadotropins and number of mature oocytes.

A total of 15,806 oocyte cryopreservation cycles between 2013 and 2018 were included in the analysis. The average age of participants was 35.4 years, the mean duration of stimulation was 11.8 days, and the average number of mature oocytes retrieved was 11.8. The treatment dose increased with age, FSH levels, BMI ≥ 35 kg/m², smoking, and history of diminished ovarian reserve, while it decreased with increasing AMH, ovulatory disorder, and BMI < 25 kg/m². The number of mature oocytes retrieved was positively correlated with AMH and negatively correlated with age, FSH levels, Asian race, and diminished ovarian reserve. With a maximum gonadotropin dosage of 450 IU per day for 12 ± 3 days of stimulation and a tolerance level of six mature oocytes, the predictive model achieved 70% accuracy. An interactive version of the equation was created as an online tool.

We developed a predictive model to estimate the total treatment dosage and the number of mature oocytes. This calculator, utilizing objective patient variables, can assist in patient counseling prior to planned oocyte cryopreservation cycles.