Predicting Parkinson's Disease Using a Deep-Learning Algorithm to Analyze Prodromal Medical and Prescription Data

Parkinson's disease (PD) is characterized by various prodromal symptoms, and these symptoms are mostly investigated retrospectively. While some symptoms such as rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder are highly specific, others are common. This makes it challenging to predict those at risk of PD based solely on less-specific prodromal symptoms. The prediction accuracy when using only less-specific symptoms can be improved by analyzing the vast amount of information available using sophisticated deep-learning techniques. This study aimed to improve the performance of deep-learning-based screening in detecting prodromal PD using medical-claims data, including prescription information.

We sampled 820 PD patients and 8,200 age- and sex-matched non-PD controls from Korean National Health Insurance cohort data. A deep-learning algorithm was developed using various combinations of diagnostic codes, medication codes, and prodromal periods.

During the prodromal period from year -3 to year 0, predicting PD using only diagnostic codes yielded a high accuracy of 0.937. Adding medication codes for the same period did not increase the accuracy (0.931-0.935). For the earlier prodromal period (year -6 to year -3), the accuracy of PD prediction decreased to 0.890 when using only diagnostic codes. The inclusion of all medication-codes data increased that accuracy markedly to 0.922.

A deep-learning algorithm using both prodromal diagnostic and medication codes was effective in screening PD. Developing a surveillance system with automatically collected medical-claims data for those at risk of developing PD could be cost-effective. This approach could streamline the process of developing disease-modifying drugs by focusing on the most-appropriate candidates for inclusion in accurate diagnostic tests.