Integrating D-Dimer Thresholds into the Revised Caprini Risk Stratification to Predict Deep Vein Thrombosis Risk in...

Preoperative patients with knee osteoarthritis have a significantly increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). While the Caprini risk assessment model offers some clinical guidance in predicting deep vein thrombosis (DVT), it has a relatively low predictive accuracy. Enhancing the model by integrating biomarkers, such as D-dimers, can potentially improve its accuracy. In this study, we explored the effectiveness of combining the Caprini risk model with D-dimer levels for individualized DVT risk assessment in patients with knee osteoarthritis.

This retrospective cohort study included 1605 knee osteoarthritis patients scheduled for total knee arthroplasty from Peking Union Medical College Hospital, screened between January 2015 and December 2018. A revised Caprini risk stratification model was developed, and a predictive DVT model was developed based on this revised system. The sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the curve (AUC) were used to determine predictive effectiveness of the model.

In the revised Caprini risk stratification, the incidence of DVT increased with higher risk levels: 2.52% in the low-risk group (scores 0-2), 2.88% in the moderate-risk group (score 3), 6.47% in the high-risk group (score 4), and 9.09% in the highest-risk group (score ≥ 5). The incidence of DVT was 3.869-fold higher in the highest-risk group and 2.676-fold higher in the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group (p = 0.013 and p = 0.014, respectively). Combining the revised Caprini risk stratification with D-dimer level demonstrated an improved AUC of 0.792, compared to D-dimer level alone (AUC 0.774) and the revised Caprini model alone (AUC 0.598). Furthermore, applying specific D-dimer thresholds across the four Caprini risk stratifications outperformed the combination of the revised Caprini model and D-dimer level in terms of AUC, specificity, and reduction in unnecessary ultrasonography. Using the Youden index, the AUC for the threshold-based method was slightly higher (0.775 vs 0.754, p = 0.310), with significantly better specificity (76.8% vs 63.6%, p < 0.001) and a greater reduction in ultrasound use (74.1% vs 61.4%). At a sensitivity of 85.5%, the differences were modest but still favored the threshold-based approach. At a sensitivity of 100%, the specificity (36.0% vs 24.7%, p < 0.001) and ultrasound reduction (34.8% vs 23.9%) were significantly better.

The revised Caprini risk stratification improves preoperative DVT prediction in patients with knee osteoarthritis. Incorporating specific D-dimer thresholds into the four-level Caprini risk model enhances specificity and reduces unnecessary ultrasonography, outperforming both the use of individual indicators and the combination of the revised Caprini model with D-dimer level.